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The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability.
Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers.
In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy.
Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains.
Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values.
There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades. Livestock systems occupy about 30 per cent of the planet's ice-free terrestrial surface area Steinfeld et al. The livestock sector is increasingly organized in long market chains that employ at least 1.
Keeping livestock is an important risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities, and livestock are important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems. Livestock products contribute 17 per cent to kilocalorie consumption and 33 per cent to protein consumption globally, but there are large differences between rich and poor countries Rosegrant et al.
Livestock systems have both positive and negative effects on the natural resource base, public health, social equity and economic growth World Bank Currently, livestock is one of the fastest growing agricultural subsectors in developing countries. Its share of agricultural GDP is already 33 per cent and is quickly increasing. This growth is driven by the rapidly increasing demand for livestock products, this demand being driven by population growth, urbanization and increasing incomes in developing countries Delgado The global livestock sector is characterized by a dichotomy between developing and developed countries.
Total meat production in the developing world tripled between and , from 45 to million tons World Bank Much of this growth was concentrated in countries that experienced rapid economic growth, particularly in East Asia, and revolved around poultry and pigs.
In developed countries, on the other hand, production and consumption of livestock products are now growing only slowly or stagnating, although at high levels. Even so, livestock production and merchandizing in industrialized countries account for 53 per cent of agricultural GDP World Bank This combination of growing demand in the developing world and stagnant demand in industrialized countries represents a major opportunity for livestock keepers in developing countries, where most demand is met by local production, and this is likely to continue well into the foreseeable future.
At the same time, the expansion of agricultural production needs to take place in a way that allows the less well-off to benefit from increased demand and that moderates its impact on the environment. This paper attempts a rapid summary of the present-day state of livestock production systems globally in relation to recent trends, coupled with a brief assessment of whether these trends are likely to continue into the future.
Section 3 summarizes the advances in science and technology that have contributed to historical increases in livestock production, and indicates where potential remains, in relation to livestock genetics and breeding, livestock nutrition and livestock disease management. Section 4 contains sketches of a number of factors that may modify both the production and the consumption of livestock products in the future: competition for land and water, climate change, the role of socio-cultural drivers and ethical concerns.
Competition for resources and climate change are treated very briefly: other reviews address these issues comprehensively. Human population in is estimated to be 9. Most of the increase is projected to take place in developing countries.
East Asia will have shifted to negative population growth by the late s FAO Rapid population growth could continue to be an important impediment to achieving improvements in food security in some countries, even when world population as a whole ceases growing sometime during the present century.
Another important factor determining demand for food is urbanization. As of the end of , more people now live in urban settings than in rural areas UNFPA , with urbanization rates varying from less than 30 per cent in South Asia to near 80 per cent in developed countries and Latin America. The next few decades will see unprecedented urban growth, particularly in Africa and Asia. Urbanization has considerable impact on patterns of food consumption in general and on demand for livestock products in particular: urbanization often stimulates improvements in infrastructure, including cold chains, and this allows perishable goods to be traded more widely Delgado A third driver leading to increased demand for livestock products is income growth.
Between and , there was an annual global per capita income growth rate of 2. As income grows, so does expenditure on livestock products Steinfeld et al. Economic growth is expected to continue into the future, typically at rates ranging from between 1. Growth in industrialized countries is projected to be slower than that in developing economies Rosegrant et al.
Differences in the consumption of animal products are much greater than in total food availability, particularly between regions. Food demand for livestock products will nearly double in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, from some kcal per person per day in to around kcal per person per day in On the other hand, in most OECD countries that already have high calorie intakes of animal products kcal per person per day or more , consumption levels will barely change, while levels in South America and countries of the Former Soviet Union will increase to OECD levels Van Vuuren et al.
Past and projected trends in consumption of meat and milk in developing and developed countries. Data for — adapted from Steinfeld et al. Projections are shown in italic font. The agricultural production sector is catering increasingly to globalized diets. Retailing through supermarkets is growing at 20 per cent per annum in countries such as China, India and Vietnam, and this will continue over the next few decades as urban consumers demand more processed foods, thus increasing the role of agribusiness Rosegrant et al.
Global livestock production has increased substantially since the s. Carcass weights increased by about 30 per cent for both chicken and beef cattle from the early s to the mids, and by about 20 per cent for pigs FAO Carcass weight increases per head for camels and sheep are much less, about 5 per cent only over this time period. Increases in milk production per animal have amounted to about 30 per cent for cows' milk, about the same as for increases in egg production per chicken over the same time period FAO Data from FAO These changes have been accompanied by substantial shifts in the area of arable land, pastures and forest.
Arable and pasture lands have expanded considerably since the early s, although the rates of change have started to slow Steinfeld et al. Considerable expansion of crop land planted to soybean as a protein source in animal feed has occurred in Latin America over the last 30 years. Some cropland has been converted to other uses, including urban development around many major cities.
Land-use intensity has increased in some places: cereal yields have trebled in East Asia over this time, while yields have increased not at all in sub-Saharan Africa, for example. Land-use change is complex and driven by a range of drivers that are regionally specific, although it is possible to see some strong historical associations between land abundance, application of science and technology and land-use change in some regions Rosegrant et al.
In Latin America, for instance, land abundance has slowed the introduction of new technologies that can raise productivity.
Historically, production response has been characterized by systems' as well as regional differences. Confined livestock production systems in industrialized countries are the source of much of the world's poultry and pig meat production, and such systems are being established in developing countries, particularly in Asia, to meet increasing demand. Bruinsma estimates that at least 75 per cent of total production growth to will be in confined systems, but there will be much less growth of these systems in Africa.
While crop production growth will come mostly from yield increases rather than from area expansion, the increases in livestock production will come about more as a result of expansion in livestock numbers in developing countries, particularly ruminants. In the intensive mixed systems, food-feed crops are vital ruminant livestock feed resources.
The prices of food-feed crops are likely to increase at faster rates than the prices of livestock products Rosegrant et al. Changes in stover production will vary widely from region to region out to Herrero et al. Large increases may occur in Africa mostly as a result of productivity increases in maize, sorghum and millet. Yet stover production may stagnate in areas such as the ruminant-dense mixed systems of South Asia, and stover will need to be replaced by other feeds in the diet to avoid significant feed deficits.
The production of alternative feeds for ruminants in the more intensive mixed systems, however, may be constrained by both land and water availability, particularly in the irrigated systems Herrero et al. Meeting the substantial increases in demand for food will have profound implications for livestock production systems over the coming decades.
In developed countries, carcass weight growth will contribute an increasing share of livestock production growth as expansion of numbers is expected to slow; numbers may contract in some regions. Globally, however, between and , the global cattle population may increase from 1. Ruminant grazing intensity in the rangelands is projected to increase, resulting in considerable intensification of livestock production in the humid and subhumid grazing systems of the world, particularly in LAC.
Data from Rosegrant et al. The prices of meats, milk and cereals are likely to increase in the coming decades, dramatically reversing past trends. Rapid growth in meat and milk demand may increase prices for maize and other coarse grains and meals. Bioenergy demand is projected to compete with land and water resources, and this will exacerbate competition for land from increasing demands for feed resources.
Growing scarcities of water and land will require substantially increased resource use efficiencies in livestock production to avoid adverse impacts on food security and human wellbeing goals. Higher prices can benefit surplus agricultural producers, but can reduce access to food by a larger number of poor consumers, including farmers who do not produce a net surplus for the market. As a result, progress in reducing malnutrition is projected to be slow Rosegrant et al. Livestock system evolution in the coming decades is inevitably going to involve trade-offs between food security, poverty, equity, environmental sustainability and economic development.
Historically, domestication and the use of conventional livestock breeding techniques have been largely responsible for the increases in yield of livestock products that have been observed over recent decades Leakey et al. At the same time, considerable changes in the composition of livestock products have occurred. If past changes in demand for livestock products have been met by a combination of conventional techniques, such as breed substitution, cross-breeding and within-breed selection, future changes are likely to be met increasingly from new techniques.
Of the conventional techniques, selection among breeds or crosses is a one-off process, in which the most appropriate breed or breed cross can be chosen, but further improvement can be made only by selection within the population Simm et al. Cross-breeding, widespread in commercial production, exploits the complementarity of different breeds or strains and makes use of heterosis or hybrid vigour Simm Such rates of change have been achieved in practice over the last few decades in poultry and pig breeding schemes in several countries and in dairy cattle breeding programmes in countries such as the USA, Canada and New Zealand Simm , mostly because of the activities of breeding companies.
Rates of genetic change achieved in national beef cattle and sheep populations are often substantially lower than what is theoretically possible. Ruminant breeding in most countries is often highly dispersed, and sector-wide improvement is challenging. Rates of genetic change have increased in recent decades in most species in developed countries for several reasons, including more efficient statistical methods for estimating the genetic merit of animals, the wider use of technologies such as artificial insemination and more focused selection on objective traits such as milk yield Simm et al.
The greatest gains have been made in poultry and pigs, with smaller gains in dairy cattle, particularly in developed countries and in the more industrialized production systems of some developing countries. Some of this has been achieved through the widespread use of breed substitution, which tends to lead to the predominance of a few highly specialized breeds, within which the genetic selection goals may be narrowly focused.
While most of the gains have occurred in developed countries, there are considerable opportunities to increase productivity in developing countries.
Within-breed selection has not been practised all that widely, in part because of the lack of the appropriate infrastructure needed such as performance recording and genetic evaluation schemes. Breed substitution or crossing can result in rapid improvements in productivity, but new breeds and crosses need to be appropriate for the environment and to fit within production systems that may be characterized by limited resources and other constraints. High-performing temperate breeds of dairy cow may not be appropriate for some developing-country situations: for example, heat stress and energy deficits make the use of Friesians in smallholdings on the Kenyan coast unsustainable, partly because of low cow replacement rates King et al.
There is much more potential in the use of crosses of European breeds with local Zebus that are well-adapted to local conditions.
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CCDC Documents are relied on as familiar industry standards for their fairness and balance for all parties involved in a construction project. Read more here:. MiTek Canada and the CFBA recently partnered on a seminar to educate CFBA members about mitigating factors related to the corrosion of truss plates in high-humidity agricultural applications. The following is an information sheet created by MiTek to reinforce the information provided in the seminar. This link has guidelines for daily truck inspections complete with samples.
The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers.
Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects
Not a MyNAP member yet? Register for a free account to start saving and receiving special member only perks. Understanding the place of animal feeding operations in the U. This chapter starts with information on the overall size of the major livestock feeding operations cattle, swine, dairy cows, and poultry and their relationship to crop agriculture. It then turns to the general economics of livestock agriculture and the structure of the livestock industry. It ends with a discussion of the economics of emissions and manure management and potential methods of livestock operation emissions control and mitigation. Livestock agriculture is concerned with raising and maintaining livestock, primarily for the purposes of producing meat, milk, and eggs.
Top 3 Risks for Farms with Livestock
Intensive animal farming or industrial livestock production , also known by its opponents as factory farming ,  is a type of intensive agriculture , specifically an approach to animal husbandry designed to maximize production, while minimizing costs. There is a continuing debate over the benefits, risks and ethics of intensive animal farming. The issues include the efficiency of food production; animal welfare ; health risks and the environmental impact e. Intensive animal farming is a relatively recent development in the history of agriculture , and the result of scientific discoveries and technological advances. Innovations from the late 19th century generally parallel developments in mass production in other industries in the latter part of the Industrial Revolution.
Мне много чего нужно, мистер Беккер, но неприятности точно не нужны. Кроме того, тот старик вроде бы обо всем позаботился. - Канадец. - Да.
Intensive animal farming
Последний месяц был для Лиланда Фонтейна временем больших ожиданий: в агентстве происходило нечто такое, что могло изменить ход истории, и, как это ни странно директор Фонтейн узнал об этом лишь случайно. Три месяца назад до Фонтейна дошли слухи о том, что от Стратмора уходит жена. Он узнал также и о том, что его заместитель просиживает на службе до глубокой ночи и может не выдержать такого напряжения.
Ну что, вы решили. Я ее убиваю. Стратмор мгновенно взвесил все варианты. Если он позволит Хейлу вывести Сьюзан из шифровалки и уехать, у него не будет никаких гарантий. Они уедут, потом остановятся где-нибудь в лесу.
Это по-латыни, - объяснил Хейл. - Из сатир Ювенала. Это значит - Кто будет охранять охранников?. - Не понимаю. Кто будет охранять охранников. - Вот .
Монокль явился провозвестником новой эры персональных компьютеров: благодаря ему пользователь имел возможность просматривать поступающую информацию и одновременно контактировать с окружающим миром. Кардинальное отличие Монокля заключалось не в его миниатюрном дисплее, а в системе ввода информации. Пользователь вводил информацию с помощью крошечных контактов, закрепленных на пальцах.
Что. - Забавно, - сказала. - Последний файл из намеченных на вчера был загружен в одиннадцать сорок .
Но в них была только смерть. Смерть ее веры в. Любовь и честь были забыты. Мечта, которой он жил все эти годы, умерла.
Ключ к Цифровой крепости зашифрован и недоступен.
Что еще за второй ключ. - Тот, что Танкадо держал при. Сьюзан была настолько ошеломлена, что отказывалась понимать слова коммандера. - О чем вы говорите.
- Наверное, увидел включенный монитор. - Черт возьми! - выругался коммандер. - Вчера вечером я специально позвонил дежурному лаборатории систем безопасности и попросил его сегодня не выходить на работу. Сьюзан это не удивило. Она не могла припомнить, чтобы когда-то отменялось дежурство, но Стратмор, очевидно, не хотел присутствия непосвященных.
Но вы же не знали. Стратмор стукнул кулаком по столу. - Я должен был знать.